Volume 2,Issue 8
投资者舆情与上市公司股价财务关联研究
—— 基于DeepSeek大模型情感分析
本研究构建了一个基于轻量级大语言模型（DeepSeek）的细粒度舆情量化框架，对东方股吧中文评论进行连续型情感评分与关联度过滤，生成日度加权情绪指数。基于2024年10只A股日频数据，结合计量与机器学习方法检验情绪对股价的非线性影响及时效特征。结果表明，社交媒体情绪与股价变动呈显著非线性关联，影响集中于短期（领先1-3天），中长期预测性能下降但存在动态波动；个股情绪敏感性存在异质性，科技类及高关注公司反应更敏感。本研究在方法上实现了基于大模型的细粒度情绪量化，在视角上融合市场反应与时间效应，揭示了情绪与股价间的非线性短周期机制，为后续融合多源数据探索情绪传导路径提供基础。
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