Volume 4,Issue 9
基于肾活检库IgA 肾病高危病理无创预测模型
目的：构建IgA 肾病高危活动性病理术前无创预测模型，分析肾活检数据库临床病理特征。方法：回顾2021—2024年肾活检资料，352 例患者用于整体特征分析；79例IgA 肾病以Oxford 分型C ≥ 1和/ 或E1定义高危病理终点，经单、多因素Logistic 回归建模，采用ROC、Bootstrap、Brier 评分、Hosmer-Lemeshow 检验评估模型效能。结果：352例不同病理亚组年龄、24h 尿蛋白、eGFR 等指标差异有统计学意义；79例IgA 肾病高危组54例，收缩压、24h尿蛋白更高，白蛋白、C3更低。收缩压、24h 尿蛋白、C3为独立影响因素；模型AUC=0.792，校正AUC=0.758，拟合良好。结论：肾活检数据库可体现术前临床异质性；该三项指标构建的无创模型区分度尚可，可于肾活检前识别高危病理风险。
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